Venzeuela Oil Fields

I misspelled the title of this post on purpose. It is how Jimmy Stewart as George Bailey pronounced this exact phrase when exclaiming to Mary Hatch (Donna Reed) about the adventures he hoped to take in the 1946 classic It's a Wonderful Life. It comes to mind pretty much any time I think about the country, but especially this week, as people who know next to nothing about the country -- I doubt they could even pronounce it -- have taken it over. Worse yet, they have done so in my name (and the name of all of my fellow U.S. citizens and taxpayers). 

Image: AFP / Getty via The Atlantic

As Conor Friedersdorf wrote in  The Atlantic almost immediately after the attack, displacing President Maduro was the easy part. In Trump’s Risky War in Venezuela, he explains some of the ways in which the next steps will be both complicated and dangerous. He quotes Orlando J. Pérez, who warned in November 2025: 

"What follows is the hard strategic slog of policing a sprawling, heavily armed society where state services have collapsed and regime loyalists, criminal syndicates, and colectivos—pro-government armed groups that police neighborhoods and terrorize dissidents—all compete for turf.” Two groups of Colombian militants “operate openly from Venezuelan safe havens, running mining and smuggling routes,” he added. “They would not go quietly.”

As someone who was chastised for opposing both wars on Iraq, I am having a strong sense of déjà vu. That is: we knew then that nearly unilateral regime change would cost far more than its cheerleaders could admit or even imagine.

Friedersdorf goes on to be rather milder than Trump deserves, writing that "if those challenges are overcome, Trump may lack the leadership qualities necessary for long-term success." The president has no discernible skills in this area.

Writing for Foreign Policy, Michael Hirsh is even more direct in Trump Sets a Devastating Precedent in Venezuela. His opening paragraph is a good a summary as any of the implications -- and perhaps even the real goals -- of this operation:

By attacking Venezuela, seizing its president, and promising to “run” the country indefinitely—all without any  congressional or United Nations authorization—U.S. President Donald Trump may well have shredded what little is left of international norms and opened the way to new acts of aggression from U.S. rivals China and Russia on the world stage, some experts say.

The fact that Stephen Miller's wife (de facto First Lady in many respects) has repeated her husband's intentions to take over Greenland suggest that Hirsh is, unfortunately, on the right track. 

The attack was launched quickly and quietly -- even Pete Hegseth did not have time to leak the plans -- in order to avoid opposition from Congress and the public. One wonders whether even the full cabinet was consulted. The national security advisor argued against a Venezuela invasion back in 2019. This may not be very relevant, of course, as many Trump loyalists began as staunch critics. 

For its part, the Organization of American States issued a statement on the day of the coup, in which Secretary General Albert R. Ramdin urges restraint and de-escalation. He also recognizes that member states (which include both Venezuela and the United States) hold a diversity of views. OAS has announced a meeting of member states at 10am EST on Tuesday, January 6, to be streamed on OAS internet sites.

Lagniappe

The domestic political implications of this attack are not as important to me as the geopolitical context in which it has taken place. But what Trump is doing here does matter, as do the responses of those who still believe in the rule of law. David Frum explores this in Trump’s Critics Are Falling Into an Obvious Trap, published by The Atlantic just hours after the coup. As poorly as Trump understands what is actually at stake in Venezuela, his one area of competence is to use it as a political weapon against those who are much better informed. 

(Note: journalism costs money -- one of the prices of having a democracy. The Atlantic has a soft paywall, meaning that registration is required to view this article, though paying for a subscription is optional.)